Nickels, Noses, Numbers

By Dr. Franklin Dumond

The role of numbers and counting in the life of a church leader, though often criticized, remains important. The effective leader has a penchant for numbers, since most of those numbers represent people or indicate a measure of their discipleship.

Are numbers necessary?

A quick look at the Bible illustrates the historical importance of numbers. There is even an Old Testament book called Numbers! The New Testament records the numbers of people who had lunch with Jesus—4,000 on one occasion; 5,000 on another—and even how they sat in groups of 50 (Luke 10:14).

Necessary Numbers

A few numbers rank with such importance that every church leader should be abreast of them. Ranked by importance these would include:

  1. Average weekly worship attendancegraph
  2. Average weekly Small Group/Sunday School attendance
  3. Number of First Time Guests
  4. Conversions: Last year and year-to-date
  5. Baptisms: Last year and year-to-date
  6. Members Received: Last year and year-to-date
  7. Average Weekly Income: Last year and year-to-date

Most of these numbers should be maintained in a multi-year graph so trend lines can be easily identified.

Behind the Scenes Numbers

Some of the most important numbers only rarely make a ‘public’ appearance. That is, they are generally not communicated openly, despite their importance. The leader of a growing congregation will undoubtedly be aware of:

  1. The size of the crowd

“If everyone had been here…” is a statement often made to console us on low attendance days or to celebrate a full house that would have been beyond capacity if everyone had been present.

The crowd is composed of those folks who attend at least once in a while. One convenient measure of the crowd is to identify those folks who attend at least once every 6-8 weeks.

Why is it so important to know the size of and the identity of the crowd? The size of the crowd indicates the potential the church has to grow and impact people. The identity of those who make up the crowd indicates who it is that we are most likely to win to faith in Christ and faithfulness to His church.

  1. Total weekly participation

In the Family Based Church, everyone attends everything. These churches function like an extended family, and are generally smaller in size. It is not uncommon for activities to be cancelled if several cannot attend.

A Program Based Church will have a more developed and diverse program where no one attends everything but everyone attends something. For example, it is not uncommon for a Program Based Church to offer small groups for adults, youth groups for teens, and children’s ministries at times other than Sunday morning. Often folks who cannot attend on Sunday morning will nevertheless participate in one or more of the weekday or weeknight ministries of the church.

Total weekly participation, then, is a measure of who attended at least one ministry activity in a given week. It is determined by a cross reference of attendance reports so that everyone who attends at least once in the week is counted.

  1. Percentage of the congregation present for five years or less

“I’m on my third congregation!” reported the pastor of a middle sized church. Having been pastor there for nearly 20 years he had discovered first hand that church folks are mobile. They move away. They drop out. Others drop in. Every year there are funerals!

Other measures of tenure could be used. A very important one is the percentage of folks who have become part of the congregation since the current pastor arrived.

Each of these measures the likelihood of leading change and maintaining relevance. Change is most likely when enough newer folks with newer ideas come into leadership roles. The pastor is most likely to lead change when a large percentage of the congregation has come into the church since he began his ministry.

Numbers will not track themselves. Use of some church management software or the development of a spreadsheet will make the task easier. In the church of 200 or fewer a good notebook and clipboard will cover most of the bases. Volunteer office helpers can do much of the record keeping. Whatever system is used, however, must ring true to the old adage “We count people because people count!”

Navigating God’s Will

By Carl Nichols

Several weeks ago my wife received a phone call from a friend regarding a potential opportunity for our family. I will spare the details, but essentially it involves a widespread platform in which our family values will be on Carl Nichols discusses the new church planting initiative at the 2014 Summit.display. Because of the somewhat controversial nature of the topic, Julie and I had to really evaluate if it was right for our family or not. When opportunities present themselves in our lives, we always try to follow a simple process that helps us determine if this is right for us.  We ask a series of questions that help us navigate the process. I though I would take some time to share this approach with you.

Does this in any way conflict with our biblical worldview?

Ultimately, like many who will read this blog, our worldview centers around the scriptures. Many things are black and white in the scriptures and many are gray areas that are left to us to make the wisest decision. If the evidence points to this opportunity conflicting with the teachings of the scriptures, then clearly we let it lie. If in fact it is unclear, we ask ourselves this question, “In light of our past experiences and future hopes and dreams, is this the wisest thing for us to do?”

Does this put our family or our relationship at risk? If so, are the risks calculated and worth it?

We do not ask this question so we can run from risk, but rather help us understand the risk involved. If in fact our family values have to be compromised, then again we will not engage. More often than not there is some risk involved in every great opportunity. We must know what the risks are, and plan and protect our family accordingly.

Will others benefit from us doing this?

This is such a counter cultural question. When most would ask, “Will I benefit?” we try to heed the words of Paul in Philippians 2:3 by asking how this can be used to benefit others. This is not my nature-I want to be the point. I want to benefit. However, it cannot be about me or us or it will likely fail. There are, of course, business opportunities that we have been a part of that did not help anyone but ourselves. However, there are also things that we have done with no benefit to us, but exponential benefits for others. It’s a delicate balance.

Is this the right time?

Regarding this particular opportunity, we decided to pursue it. However, the same day of the final meeting, I sustained a serious injury that could effect the situation. I don’t know how it will turn out, but I am open to the fact that now may or may not be the right time. If the injury causes the other party to pull back, then that brings some clarity. If, however, we both chose to move forward, then this injury may be even more a part of the platform.

What are the consequences of not doing this?

Whose lives will be effected negatively? What gospel opportunity will be missed? What will my kids miss out on? These are just a few questions we carefully consider.

Will we regret letting the opportunity pass?

I will just sum this up with this statement: I would rather get to the end of my life and regret trying some things and failing, than not trying those things and regret the missed opportunity. I believe at the end of our lives we will regret the “sins of omission” much more that the “sins of commission.” That’s just a personal belief, but I challenge you to ponder it.

6 Reasons Churches Never Address Decline

By Franklin Dumond

Churches, like other organizations and the people who participate, move through predictable cycles.  In the institutional memory of every church there is the awareness that average attendance varies from year to year.  Anyone who has been part of a congregation for any length of time will have experienced those occasions when more people attend now than used to attend.  Seasoned members will also have experienced those occasions where fewer people attend now than in the past.

Some years ago, one church consultant described churches and their attendance patterns as either being on the incline (growing and increasing), on the recline (stable, on a plateau), or on the decline (fewer attending now than used to attend).  Most observers of the American church landscape suggest that at least 80% of churches are reclining or declining.

The net result of long term decline is always death.   So why don’t more churches address the serious issue of decline?

  1. Poor record keeping disguises decline.  I once helped stage a picture for some church publicity.  We wanted to show the auditorium as full of people, but it was a weekday and only a handful of people were in the building when the photographer arrived.  No problem.  He simply staged them along the center aisle and framed the shot looking down the aisle.  By cropping out the rest of the picture we had a full house with only a couple of dozen folks present!

inside-of-a-church-pews-hanging-cross-shiny-aisleMy wife observed recently that the church looked “pretty full this morning” but in actuality the seating capacity was seriously          underutilized at only about 50% occupied.  I counted.  She observed.  My count did not match her observation although she admitted the seating patterns made it look like a larger crowd was present.

Unless church leaders count and compare the counts from week to week, from month to month, or from year to year decline may easily be disguised.

  1. Righteous Remnant Theology often predicts a falling away from the church because people in general just cannot accept the hard truth of the Gospel.  Decline in this scenario has to do more with decline in standards and errors in theology rather than loss of numbers.
  2. Decline is the new normal.  Congregations that experience long term decline can reach the point that decline is expected.  Many worshippers have little if any experience in another church and are simply unaware of any other scenario.
  3. We’ve built it so they should come.  This philosophy of ministry worked very well in the 1950’s when it was expected that folks should attend church.  That social or cultural expectation no longer exists, so new folks now attend church only if they are invited by someone they know and trust.
  4. A lack of introspection, and thus lack of personal responsibility, can speed decline.  As a young pastor I found a box of old church newsletters.  While reading through them I noticed a particularly personal confession from a former pastor.  He was a seasoned veteran.  He also took a hard look around and noticed that there were no conversions for three months.  At that point, he began looking inside himself since he felt a keen responsibility to model personal evangelism.  If he had not taken the time for this personal introspection the decline would probably have continued.
  5. Churches prefer to reach one person rather than one neighborhood full of people.  Remember a broken clock is still correct twice each day.  It is very easy to excuse what we are currently doing because once in a while we connect with one person.  Isn’t it worth it to reach even one?  Maybe not, when similar resources of time, talent and treasure could reach a neighborhood full of people by intentional outreach.

Periods of decline are inevitable.  Persistent decline, however, was never the intention of the Lord Jesus who announced that the gates of Hell would not prevail against His Church.